SALO lives

It’s Alive

After about two weeks’ work, I’ve got the first SALO 3 estimates.

• Only shot quantity ability is estimated so far.
• WAR values with MARKOV are not yet computed.

The estimates are much higher quality than any previous ones.

I can believe the estimates enough to start asking what they mean.

Now? I can confidently say I don’t believe this model I’ve crafted.

Discussion to come

Expect forthcoming posts about:

• Estimation obstacles and why they’ve taken till now to surmount
• Possible multiple posterior modes and implications for sampling UPDATE: nope!
• The genuinely weird MARTIN-QUINN projections

Expect all these to contain a lot more questions than answers!