Version 1.2 has been paired with a compatible value-over-replacement method.

SALO is an up-to-date approach to assessing individual players with shooting data.

SALO uses an explicit Bayesian model to estimate skaters’ underlying ability to cause net shots on goal.

This means SALO achieves some things that (adjusted) count stats can’t:

  • Fully control for other players on ice
  • Intelligently correct for individual sample size
  • Quantify uncertainty about point-like player estimates
  • Project future years with survivor bias mitigated

SALO’s model is designed to be improved over time and account for more aspects of the context in which skaters play.

You can:

  • view estimated individualized shots-for percentages for the past few years;
  • view projected percentages for next year;
  • read an in-depth explanation of the model, or a concise write-up of the math;
  • see answers to some anticipated questions.